A real estate analyst has warned that Florida’s housing market is facing a downturn which echoes the 2008 housing crash.

Analyst Nick Gerli, CEO of the app Reventure, posted a thread on X, formerly Twitter, in which he warned that reduced numbers of migration to the state, coupled with an oversupply of homes and record high prices, could “cause Florida’s housing market to decline for an extended period.”

Why It Matters

During the pandemic, many people flocked to Florida, prompting a flurry of investment into building new homes. Now, that trend has reversed, with far fewer people moving in, and many leaving.

This has coincided with oversupply of homes on the market, falling demand, and affordability issues for local buyers, leading to analysts warning that the housing market could be heading into a prolonged downturn.

What To Know

Gerli noted that Florida now has 177,000 homes for sale, the most on record, while the entire Northeast U.S. has just 79,000 listings, the lowest ever recorded.

Migration to Florida has dropped 80 percent from its pandemic peak. Without new buyers, the demand for housing is falling, but prices remain high, meaning that local buyers are being priced out.

Gerli said that local homebuyers in Florida now need to pay 39 percent of their income on the mortgage and tax costs for buying a house, which is the highest level since the 2006-07 bubble.

He noted that while house prices are going up in value in places such as New York, in Florida they have dropped 2.4 percent in the past year. He cited estimates from Reventure that house prices in Florida will drop a further 5 percent in the coming year.

Gerli argued that the main issue facing the Florida housing market is the decline in inbound migration, not commonly cited factors such as high homeowners association fees or insurance costs.

“I just think this is the big piece of the story people don’t understand yet about Florida’s housing market. Everyone is blaming HOA fees, hurricanes, and insurance. And many think this is just a “blip” that will soon subside,” he said.

“The true reality could be that Florida is now entering the downcycle of inbound migration, and that downcycle will last for years.”

He said that he believes the only thing that could counteract these trends is “significantly cheaper prices” that could entice more people to move back.

What People Are Saying

Nick Gerli, CEO of the app Reventure, wrote on X: “Florida’s housing market is in a housing downturn. Prices are dropping all across the state, and will likely continue to drop for years due to an oversupply of housing combined with record lack of affordability.”

What Happens Next

Florida could be entering a multiyear housing price correction, with falling prices needed to restore affordability and attract buyers again.