Russian and American delegations are preparing to meet in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday without inviting Ukraine—raising questions about how the U.S. could respond to other partners, such as Taiwan, that may someday face an existential threat.

Newsweek contacted the Taiwanese, Ukrainian and Chinese foreign ministries and the White House for comment via written request.

Why It Matters

U.S. President Donald Trump‘s administration has framed the meeting as an early step toward ending the war. This has raised concerns in Kyiv and the European Union, which have insisted they be included in any peace talks. True to his dealmaking style, Trump has approached the talks with a more transactional mindset than his predecessor, former President Joe Biden.

More than 4,000 miles away in Taiwan, Trump’s moves are being scrutinized, with some concerned that his administration’s approach to Ukraine could signal how it would respond to a cross-strait conflict between the East Asian power and its diminutive neighbor.

What To Know

China claims sovereignty over Taiwan, though the Xi Jinping-led Chinese Communist Party has never ruled there, and vows to bring it into the fold—through force if necessary. In recent years, Beijing has significantly intensified its military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan, alongside disinformation campaigns aimed at sowing division on the democratic island.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s 2022 invasion of Ukraine drew comparisons to Taiwan’s potential fate, analysts have pointed to key differences and logistic hurdles an invasion force may face—including the choppy Taiwan Strait and the small number of beaches suitable for securing a beachhead.

Another notable difference is Taiwan’s strategic position on the “first island chain,” a line of U.S.-aligned territories the Pentagon sees as vital for containing Chinese forces in a conflict. The island also plays a central role in producing critical technologies, such as AI and missile tracking systems.

Key to Taiwan’s efforts to resist Chinese aggression would be the U.S. and its willingness to get involved.

While the U.S. does not officially recognize Taiwan, it is the island’s strongest supporter and primary source of foreign weapons. Washington has for decades maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would commit troops to Taiwan’s defense, keeping officials in Beijing and Taipei guessing.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and his China-skeptic Democratic Progressive Party have sought to frame U.S.-Taiwan ties as strong. However, recent comments by Trump have been used to support the narrative—fed by China—that Washington views Taiwan as no more than a pawn in its efforts to contain China.

The U.S. president has suggested Taiwan should pay the U.S. “protection” money. He has also accused the island of stealing the U.S.’s chip industry and threatened tariffs to coerce Taiwan’s chipmakers to expand operations in the U.S.

Observers, including former National Security Adviser John Bolton, have criticized Trump for his apparent lack of interest in offering Ukraine a path to NATO membership or reclaiming territory lost to Russia between its 2014 incursion and 2022 full-scale invasion.

Trump administration officials have proposed that Ukraine grant the U.S. access to half of its rare earth mineral reserves as repayment for the billions in aid provided since the war began. Officials also reportedly floated the possibility of U.S. troops deploying to protect these mineral interests—once the war ends.

On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed he had turned down the offer, saying it did not include enough security guarantees for his country.

United Daily News, a Taiwanese newspaper, noted in a recent editorial, “During his campaign, Trump blamed Zelensky for allowing the war to happen in the first place, while accusing Biden of ‘instigating’ the Russia-Ukraine war.”

The paper continued: “Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party has strongly rejected the ‘Today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan’ comparison. However, Ukraine, which has found itself not at the negotiation table but on the menu, offers Taiwan a clearer warning than ever. If Zelensky should never have allowed the war to happen, then who is responsible for turning Taiwan into one of the world’s most dangerous flash points?”

In a poll released in January by Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, 47 percent of respondents said they believed U.S.-Taiwan relations would remain the same, while 24 percent expected them to deteriorate. Only 12 percent believed ties would improve.

“The United States and Taiwan have a robust unofficial relationship. We share similar values, deep commercial and economic links, and strong people-to-people ties,” a State Department spokesperson told Newsweek on Monday, stressing that the U.S. expected “cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to people on both sides of the Strait.”

China welcomes how the negotiations, including between its Russian ally and the U.S., are playing out, Chinese envoy to the United Nations Fu Cong said on Monday, per state media.

“We hope the parties will jointly address the root causes of the crisis through negotiation and find a balanced, effective, and sustainable security framework for lasting stability in the region,” he said.

What People Are Saying

Bonnie Glaser, the managing director of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Program’s German Marshall Fund, told Newsweek: “Trump stated clearly during the campaign that ending the war in Ukraine would be a priority of his administration. He has never intimated that he has the intention to resolve differences between Beijing and Taipei. I believe that Trump seeks to avoid a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. His main goals regarding Taiwan involve addressing Taiwan’s trade, surplus with the U.S., and bringing more investment in semiconductors into the U.S.”

Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, told Newsweek: “The key uncertainty lies in the contrast between President Trump’s bold, high-risk negotiating approach and the practical obstacles to achieving a breakthrough. He favors direct, leader-to-leader discussions where all issues are on the table and both sides aim for a transformative agreement.

“However, given Xi Jinping’s fundamental priorities, a scenario in which Taiwan’s autonomy is curtailed and its democracy weakened seems more plausible than a shift in Beijing’s stance. Realistically, the most likely outcome of high-level talks would be a fourth U.S.-China communiqué aimed at stabilizing the cross-strait status quo and fostering economic relations between the two nations.”

What Happens Next

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, are in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The Russia-Ukraine war is expected to feature in the talks, which follow a recent phone call between Trump and Putin in which the leaders agreed to begin negotiations immediately. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the press that the meeting would be “primarily to the restoration of the entire complex of Russian-American relations.”

U.S. defense and intelligence officials have said they believe China’s president has directed his military to be capable of moving against the island by 2027.

During his Senate confirmation hearing in January, Rubio went further, saying the U.S. must help drive up the costs of a Chinese offensive or it would “have to deal with this before the end of this decade.”