The trade that has dominated the Boston Red Sox offseason but has not happened yet still remains a real possibility, according to a report by The Boston Globe.

According to Globe baseball reporter Alex Speier, as of Tuesday night the Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals had resumed discussions over the possibility of eight-time All-Star Nolan Arenado coming to Boston. Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been open about his desire to trade the 33-year-old Arenado in order to free up cash as St. Louis attempts a quick rebuild.

But Arenado has a no-trade clause built into to his eight-year, $260 million contract, which he signed in 2019 with his original team, the Colorado Rockies. He invoked the no-trade provision earlier this offseason when the Cardinals put a deal in place to trade the Newport Beach, California, native to the Houston Astros.

“As of Tuesday night, there wasn’t an agreement on the parameters of a trade,” Speier reported on Wednesday. “There are conversations about how much of the remaining $64 million on Arenado’s contract over the next three years ($74 million in salary, minus $10 million owed by the Rockies) would be covered by St. Louis.”

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If the teams can agree on the percentage of Arenado’s salary the Cardinals must absorb, the next step is the “parameters” — that is, how much the Red Sox are willing to give up to acquire Arenado. But how valuable is the five-time Silver Slugger winner at this point in his career, really?

The 10-time Gold Glove recipient is described by Speier as “one of the best defensive third basemen in history,” and one who “remained excellent in the field last year.”

His skill with the glove at the hot corner is something the Red Sox could definitely use. According to Fangraphs measurements of defensive run prevention ability, Boston’s regular third baseman Rafael Devers cost the team nine runs with his shaky glove over the course of the 2024 season.

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In St. Louis, Arenado’s defense saved the Cardinals six runs. Using the generally accepted baseball rule of thumb that 10 runs produces one win, the 15-run difference between the two fielders means that replacing Devers with Arenado at third would have given the Red Sox an additional 1.5 wins based on fielding alone.

Devers would likely move to the DH spot full-time if Arenado takes over third base. But Arenado’s offense has been on the decline in recent seasons. Based on Fangraphs’ “weighted runs created plus” (wRC+) number, which is an overall measure of run production in which the league average is fixed at 100, Arenado had the worst offensive year of his career in 2024 — except for the truncated 2020 season and his 2013 rookie year.

Arenado posted a 102 wRC+ in 2024, compared to Devers, whose 134 wRC+ was the second-highest of his career.

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