Russian forces have incurred high casualties in battles across the front lines against Ukraine since the start of the year, and they have not kept up the steady pace of advances that Moscow managed throughout 2024, according to new analysis.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian defense ministry for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Russia’s military has been steadily gaining ground at various points along the hundreds of miles of front lines in Ukraine for more than year, but at a heavy cost in personnel.

Figures from Ukraine’s armed forces and Western intelligence suggest that daily casualties for Moscow have topped 1,000 for many months, with the highest number of monthly casualties coming in December 2024. Russia is known for what have been dubbed “meat assaults,” where waves of many soldiers, often lacking sufficient training or adequate equipment, are sent to attack Ukrainian positions.

Moscow has focused its efforts on several parts of the front line in the eastern Donetsk region, including towards the cities of Pokrovsk — a key Ukrainian defensive hub — and Toretsk, which sits further east.

What to Know

“Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024,” the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, which tracks daily changes to the front lines, said on Monday.

Kyiv said on Monday that Moscow had lost more than 48,000 soldiers in January, marking the second-highest number of monthly casualties since February 2022.

Figures from Ukraine’s military on Tuesday put Russia’s total casualty count in nearly three years of war at 842,930, including 1,270 fighters killed or injured since Monday morning. Western estimates, while slightly lower, come in at similar figures.

Ukraine has also sustained eye-watering casualties, but Russia does not provide a running total of Ukrainian losses. Moscow’s defense ministry said on Tuesday that Kyiv had lost roughly 1,265 fighters since early on Monday.

It is very difficult to verify battlefield casualties. Russian independent outlet Mediazona and the BBC‘s Russian service reported at the end of January that it could verify the deaths of 2,333 Russian personnel between January 17 and January 31, putting the total number of confirmed deaths of Russian personnel fighting against Ukraine at just over 91,000.

The ISW think tank said it assessed Russia had advanced a total of 498 square kilometers (192 square miles) throughout January, sustaining roughly 96 casualties per square kilometer of territory brought under the Kremlin’s control.

In December, when Moscow sustained its highest number of monthly casualties, it secured 593 square kilometers of territory, the ISW said.

Russia’s pace of advance was expected by many experts to slow as it approached built-up areas like Pokrovsk. It is easier for troops to advance in more rural areas away from large towns or cities, rather than battle through urban settlements block by block.

The ISW said it believed Russia’s top military officials had likely stomached high casualty counts when they secured “larger territorial gains” in the fall of 2024.

“It remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk,” the think tank said.

Who Said What

The ISW said on Monday: “Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term.”

What Happens Next

Russian forces will likely continue their advances around settlements like Pokrovsk as the results of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s repeated pledges to end the war become clearer in the coming weeks.