Russia’s advances in Ukraine over the past week plummeted to levels last seen in July, according to an analysis by an independent investigative Russian news outlet.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian government for comment via email.

Why It Matters

The recent pace of Russian advance in Ukraine has been the lowest in six months, which is likely to worry Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump‘s return to the White House on January 20.

As the prospect of peace talks or a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine gains traction, both countries seek to boost their negotiating hand ahead of Trump’s inauguration should such talks commence.

What To Know

After several record-breaking months, Putin’s troops captured 40.43 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in the week from December 30 to January 5, according to data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState that the news site Agentstvo analyzed.

The outlet reported that the figure marked the slowest rate of advance by Russia in Ukraine since July. According to Agentstvo, from July 15 to 21, Russian troops seized 32.8 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.

Citing DeepState, a project with ties to Ukraine’s armed forces, Agentstvo said Russia had been advancing only in the southern part of the Donetsk region—to the south of Pokrovsk, north of Ocheretyne, to the south and north of the city of Kurakhove, and in Kurakhove itself.

Although Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed the capture of Kurakhove on Monday, Ukraine has not confirmed that it was seized. The city is a key stronghold for the Ukrainian army, as it is near key highways that connect the south and west of Donetsk with other Ukrainian regions.

One of the Kremlin’s key focuses in its full-scale invasion, which began in February 2022, has been to capture Ukraine’s Donbas region. The area comprises the entirety of occupied Luhansk and Donetsk. Moscow has specified that Kyiv must accept Russia’s control of the Donbas and of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, while Ukraine has said it will not concede any territory.

Putin’s forces had been making rapid gains in the Donbas last year, setting weekly advance records as Ukrainian troops were deployed in Russia’s western Kursk region, in part, to divert Putin’s forces from Ukraine’s east.

The recent slowdown in advances may suggest that Russia’s army is sustaining higher war casualties and that Putin is struggling to replenish his army’s ranks.

What People Are Saying

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Monday: “The Russians have deployed their strongest units to Kursk, including soldiers from North Korea. Importantly, all this manpower cannot now be redirected to other fronts—neither to the Donetsk region, nor against Sumy, the Kharkiv region, or Zaporizhzhia.”

What Happens Next

Clashes will likely continue in Ukraine’s east as Putin’s troops push to capture the Donbas. A fresh incursion by Ukraine in Russia’s Kursk region, launched on January 5, could also divert Russian forces from Ukraine to the border region.