Four Southeastern states are at risk of “drenching” thunderstorms associated with a possible tropical storm off the coast that could form this weekend.

Even if the storm doesn’t form, it will bring heavy rainfall and a risk of dangerous flash floods along the southeastern U.S. coast this weekend and early next week.

Why It Matters

If it forms, Tropical Storm Chantal will be the third named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. The first storm, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed last week and caused no United States-related impacts. Tropical Storm Barry formed in the Bay of Campeche last weekend and impacted Eastern Mexico.

What to Know

Chances are increasing that the tropical storm will form northeast of Florida. It could bring heavy rain and flood-related impacts to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Tropical downpours could begin as soon as Thursday, a map from AccuWeather said, and continue through Sunday. Nearly all of Florida is expecting the rain, as well as Southeastern Georgia, Eastern South Carolina and Eastern North Carolina.

Even if the storm doesn’t form, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek it will still bring heavy rain to the Southeast U.S.

AccuWeather forecasts anticipate the storm will develop between July 4 and July 7.

In addition to heavy rain, rough surf is also expected. This could include dangerous rip currents along the Southeastern coast.

As of Thursday around noon Eastern time, no National Weather Service (NWS) weather alerts have been issued in the area.

What People Are Saying

DaSilva said in a report by AccuWeather: “Steering breezes will likely guide the area of tropical interest northward during the weekend to early next week. How long it is able to remain over water may determine how strong it is able to become in terms of winds and extent of heavy rain.”

NHC in a forecast about the disturbance: “An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along a weakening frontal boundary near Florida or the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slow development, but a tropical or subtropical depression could form in this region over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts northward or northeastward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the southeast U.S., particularly across the west-central Florida coast.”

What Happens Next

The NHC forecast says there is a 20 percent chance the storm will become tropical in the next 48 hours and a 60 percent chance it will do so in the next seven days.