Vice President J.D. Vance is by a significant margin the most popular potential 2028 Republican presidential candidate among GOP primary voters, according to a new survey conducted by Emerson College Polling.

But one expert told Newsweek, “…his fate is tied to the success of Trump’s second term, and if that fails to deliver, JD’s star will wane.”

Newsweek contacted the office of Vice President Vance for comment on Friday via email outside of regular office hours.

Why It Matters

Whilst he’s occasionally toyed with running for a third term, President Trump is constitutionally limited to two terms in the White House, meaning the Republican Party will need a new candidate for the 2028 presidential election.

Over the past decade, Trump has redefined the Republican Party, moving it to more nativist, protectionist, and anti-immigration positions, and the 2028 GOP presidential primary could see a contest between those who want it to continue with this direction and their rivals.

What To Know

Emerson College Polling surveyed 416 likely Republican primary voters about their preferred 2028 presidential candidate between June 24 and 25, with the data having a plus or minus 4.8 percentage point margin of error.

The poll found that Vance had a strong lead, with 46 percent saying he was their preferred candidate, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 12 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 9 percent.

They were followed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 5 percent and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley each at 2 percent.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, business tycoon Vivek Ramaswamy and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin all had 1 percent support. Another 17 percent of those polled said they were “undecided.”

Vance shared Trump’s more nationalistic view of what the Republican Party should be, but also has close ties to figures on the tech right, including billionaire businessman Peter Thiel.

Emerson College Polling also surveyed 404 likely Democratic primary voters over the same period, which produced a much tighter result.

When asked about their preferred 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, 16 percent chose former transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg, 13 percent supported a second run by Kamala Harris, and 12 percent endorsed California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Pennsylvania Governor Tim Waltz came in joint fourth with 7 percent support each, followed by left-wing Senate veteran Bernie Sanders at 5 percent.

Recently, Newsom challenged Vance to a debate after the vice president accused him of “egging on” violent disorder in Los Angeles during anti-immigration enforcement demonstrations.

Overall, Emerson College Polling surveyed 1,000 U.S. voters, with 42 percent saying they would vote for each of the Democratic and Republican nominees on a generic 2028 presidential ballot, with another 16 percent undecided. On Trump, 45 percent approved of his performance as president, whilst 46 percent disapproved.

What People Are Saying

Speaking to Newsweek Mark Shanahan, an expert in American politics who teaches at the University of Surrey in the UK, said: “It’s very early days yet in picking the runners and riders for the 2028 GOP Presidential Primary and at the moment, it’s hard for anyone to see past the vast shadow cast by the incumbent. It’s no surprise that Vance is leading the field. He has high visibility and name recognition.

“However, his fate is tied to the success of Trump’s second term, and if that fails to deliver, JD’s star will wane. Rubio, DeSantis and RFK Junior are tarnished by failed previous runs for the White House, and realistically, Vance is most likely to face a successful Governor – Youngkin or Abbott perhaps, or a member of Congress who gains momentum from the midterms and can challenge the Vance continuity candidacy.”

Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said: “Vice President Vance has solidified himself as the frontrunner in the 2028 nomination contest, backed by 52% of male Republican primary voters and voters over 60.

“Looking ahead to next year’s Midterm Election, the Democrats have a slight edge over the Republicans, with independents breaking for the Democratic candidate 37% to 27%. However, a significant 36% of independents are undecided, so this number is expected to shift.”

What Happens Next

Vance has not announced that he is running in the 2028 Republican presidential primary contest, nor would he be expected to do so until much nearer the time. The first GOP presidential primary elections are expected to be held in early 2028.