California Governor Gavin Newsom‘s chances of winning the 2028 Democratic primary increased in a second poll following the Los Angeles protests over President Donald Trump‘s immigration policies.

Newsweek reached out to Newsom’s team for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Newsom has not formally said he’s planning to run in the primary, which could draw other high profile names including former Vice President Kamala Harris and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg. But he is viewed as a potential candidate by Democrats. The governor has cast himself as a foil to President Donald Trump following his return to office, and has attracted national attention over his opposition to the president’s policies.

Newsom and Trump have sparred over the California protests after the president federalized National Guard troops, arguing local officials were not doing enough to quell demonstrations that at times grew violent, though most protesters were peaceful. Newsom, however, said Trump sending in the National Guard only escalated the situation and cast the move as an abuse of power.

Newsom sued to block the federalization, though the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has temporarily blocked another judge’s order to return the troops to Newsom’s control. Newsom has earned praise from some Democrats for taking on Trump.

What to Know

A McLaughlin poll released this week shows Newsom’s support against other potential 2028 candidates doubling from May, though Harris and Buttigieg are still the candidates preferred by most Democrats. Eight percent said they would cast their ballot for Newsom, up from four percent in May.

Harris had support from 30 percent of Democrats, while 10 percent said they planned to back Buttigieg. Newsom surpassed New Jersey Senator Cory Booker and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, both of whom received 7 percent in the latest poll.

The poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 10 to June 15, 2025.

The poll likely says more about the mood of voters than Newsom’s chances, Anne Danehy, senior associate dean and associate professor of the practice at Boston University’s College of Communications, told Newsweek. Democratic voters, many of whom have been frustrated by their party’s approach to Trump, may be responding to Newsom “taking an active stand against Trump,” she said.

“Voters always like candidates that take tough stands, take tough positions and are vocal about standing up for what they believe in. It’s part of the appeal with Donald Trump, honestly. He says it as it is. He doesn’t sugar coat things,” she said. “What we saw with Newsom is that Newsom is doing the same thing. People feel like he is standing up in sharp juxtaposition to Trump.”

It’s now the second public opinion survey to show Newsom’s support surge.

A Morning Consult poll released earlier this week showed that 11 percent of Democrats planned to back Newsom—compared to 5 percent in March. Harris and Buttigieg both saw their share of the vote decline from 36 percent to 34 percent and 10 percent to seven percent, respectively.

That poll surveyed 1,000 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents from June 13 to June 15, 2025.

While Newsom’s message may be resonating with Democratic voters, a challenge for him would be to show he is not a “California liberal” or “coastal elite,” attacks that Republicans are likely to throw at him if he becomes the nominee, Danehy said.

He needs to show voters how he has improved peoples’ lives on a personal level to counter that narrative, she said.

Protests began after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) began conducting raids in Los Angeles earlier in June to fulfill Trump’s promise of mass deportations. The raids are following legal directives from federal authorities, but critics have raised concerns about the treatment of migrants by federal authorities as well as the tactics used by immigration agents during the raids.

Amid the protests, Trump deployed about 4,000 members of California’s National Guard and the 700 U.S. Marines to assist in stopping violence, despite objections from Newsom and other local officials.

What People Are Saying

Newsom told The Wall Street Journal earlier in June: “I’m not thinking about running, but it’s a path that I could see unfold.”

Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on June 12: “This whole ridiculous and completely unnecessary situation in Los Angeles has been good for only one thing: Gavin Newsom’s 2028 campaign.”

What Happens Next

The Democratic primaries won’t be held until 2028, so plenty could change between now and then. Candidates typically start announcing presidential bids after the midterms wrap up.