A new poll of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race showed Republican Representative Byron Donalds with a narrow lead over former Representative David Jolly, a former Republican who is running as a Democrat. However, nearly one-third of voters remain undecided, and Jolly told Newsweek on Wednesday he feels “very good about this race.”

Newsweek reached out to the Donalds and Jolly campaigns via email and online contact form.

Why It Matters

Florida zoomed toward Republicans over the past decade, with the former swing state backing President Donald Trump by double digits in last year’s elections. But Democrats are hoping to make the Sunshine State competitive once again in the 2026 midterms, particularly if Trump’s approval fuels a 2018-style “blue wave” next November. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterms.

Whoever emerges victorious in the election will have a say over key economic and social policies in Florida, home to more than 23 million residents.

What to Know

A new poll released by Victory Insights revealed how Floridians are feeling about a hypothetical matchup between Donalds and Jolly more than a year out from the primary election. A plurality of voters said they are leaning toward Donalds, but many are still up for grabs, according to the survey of 600 likely voters conducted from June 7 to June 10, 2025.

Donalds received support from 36.7 percent of respondents, while 31.4 percent said they intend to cast their ballot for Jolly, according to the poll. Still, 31.9 percent said they weren’t sure who they would support in the election.

Jolly announced his gubernatorial campaign last week. He previously served in the House of Representatives as a Republican from 2014 to 2017, representing areas of Pinellas County. Since leaving Congress, he has become a vocal Trump critic and officially became a Democrat this year before joining the race.

Democrats also ran a former Republican as their nominee in the 2022 gubernatorial race, with former Governor Charlie Crist winning the party’s nomination but ultimately losing to GOP Governor Ron DeSantis by about 20 points in the general election.

Ben Galbraith, a senior pollster at Victory Insights, wrote in a polling memo that while Democrats hope Jolly may be ‘more palatable to modern Republicans,” Crist’s defeat in 2022 indicates that thought process “is grounded more so in hope than in reason.”

Other polls have also suggested Republicans have an early lead in the state’s gubernatorial race.

A poll from the James Madison Institute, which surveyed 1,200 registered Florida voters from May 5 to May 7, showed Donalds as well as Florida first lady Casey DeSantis leading Democratic candidates, albeit by a smaller margin than Trump’s 2024 victory in the state.

Trump won Florida by 13 percentage points, the strongest Republican showing in the state in decades. He won Florida by about three points in 2020 and just over a single percentage point in 2016, with former President Barack Obama winning the state in both his 2008 and 2012 election campaigns.

The primary is still more than a year away, and it’s unclear whether other candidates like DeSantis or former Representative Matt Gaetz, also a Republican, are going to jump into the race. However, Trump has already endorsed Donalds, giving him a likely boost in the GOP primary.

What People Are Saying

Florida Gubernatorial candidate David Jolly told Newsweek: “This election is about change vs more of the same. I am focused on mobilizing a coalition of Florida voters ready to bring generational relief to our affordability crisis, while other candidates ignore the urgency. I’m not surprised polls are now where they are. But we are just getting started. I feel very good about this race.”

J. Edwin Benton, a professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek last month: “The Democratic Party could make it interesting, if, and that’s a very big if, it can get its act together, which they haven’t been able to do for the last four, five, six years. But the opportunity is there, if nothing more than the pushback against DeSantis and Trump.”

Donalds on CBN News, according to Florida Politics: “I have the support of President Donald Trump. I have the support of [Florida’s GOP] Senator Rick Scott. I have the support of most of the Republican congressional delegation. And we’re picking up steam every single day. I’ve been crisscrossing the state nonstop for the last six weeks, except when I’m here doing my job here in Washington.”

What Happens Next

Florida voters will head to the polls in the primary on August 18, 2026, and the general election will be held on November 3, 2026. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Solid Republican.