Forecasters at AccuWeather report a low chance of early-season tropical development in the Caribbean beginning late next week.

Experts at the outlet also indicate a low chance of tropical development in the Pacific off Central America’s coast between May 15 and 22.

Why It Matters

Though the official Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, recent years have shown a growing trend of May tropical activity. Since 2015, only four years have passed without a named system forming in May, according to AccuWeather.

Mid-May tropical downpours associated could result in localized flooding across parts of Central America, the western Caribbean islands, and even as far north as South Florida, the outlet is forecasting.

What To Know

Meteorologists are monitoring a potential formation of a gyre—an expansive, slow-rotating weather system—centered near Central America. This gyre could begin forming around mid-May and extend into adjacent parts of the Caribbean Sea and the eastern Pacific Ocean, laying the groundwork for wetter conditions and isolated storm development.

“We’re starting to get into that time of year where we need to keep an eye on the Caribbean,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert. “At the very least, a wetter pattern down across Central America and then up into the Western Caribbean is expected.”

AccuWeather hurricane experts describe a gyre as a broad, weak low-pressure system with counterclockwise circulation that can form over Central America. While it usually doesn’t turn into a hurricane itself, it can create favorable conditions for tropical disturbances to develop into depressions, storms, or hurricanes.

If the gyre leads to the formation of a tropical depression or storm in the Caribbean, it’s expected to move northeast, according to the outlet.

“Given the pattern, I think the most likely scenario is it would cross over Jamaica, Cuba, and then head out to sea,” DaSilva said. “At this point, while we can’t completely rule it out, a track toward the U.S. appears unlikely. Any potential risk wouldn’t arise before May 20 and more likely not until May 22.”

What People Are Saying

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva said, in an advisory shared with Newsweek: “We’re coming out of the winter season, so we want people to start transitioning their mindset into tropical mode as we head toward the end of May, because there could be something lurking down there in the middle to late portions of the month.”

What Happens Next

AccuWeather experts are predicting 13-18 named storms in their hurricane forecast for 2025. Of these, between seven and 10 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, the outlet said.