Republican Senator Jon Husted of Ohio has an early lead over two potential Democratic challengers in the latest poll of the Buckeye State’s 2026 Senate race. “I will work hard and win,” he told Newsweek.

However, a professor of political science at Bowling Green State University, which conducted the poll, said Democrats could yet retake the seat if the economy worsens, by regaining their standing as the party of the middle and working class.

Newsweek also reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Democrats face a potentially challenging Senate map next year, as they will need to flip at least two states President Donald Trump won by double digits to secure a majority. This means Democrats will need to win states like Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, where they have not won major statewide races for years, if not decades.

Ohio, which was a swing state for much of the 2000s, is viewed as perhaps Democrats’ best chance beyond Maine and North Carolina, the two most competitive races. Husted, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed to the position by Governor Mike DeWine to replace Vice President JD Vance‘s term.

Democrats are hoping a strong national environment will give them a chance at flipping the Senate seat, but Republicans are hoping its conservative lean will keep it off the board.

What to Know

A new poll conducted by Bowling Green State University asked voters who they would vote for in hypothetical matchups between Husted and two prominent Democrats floated as potential candidates. The poll surveyed 978 registered voters from April 18 to April 24, 2025. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.08 percentage points.

In a hypothetical race against former Senator Sherrod Brown, Husted held a slight lead of three points (49 percent to 46 percent), with 5 percent saying they would vote for someone else.

He held a slightly larger lead against former Representative Tim Ryan, who lost to Vance in the 2022 Senate race, holding a 6-point lead (50 percent to 44 percent), while 6 percent said they preferred other candidates.

The Ohio Senate race is an “uphill battle” for Democrats but could become competitive under the right conditions, Robert Alexander, Ph.D., professor of political science and founding director of the Democracy and Public Policy Network at Bowling Green State University, told Newsweek.

“Midterm races notoriously fare poorly for the president’s party and Democrats had a historic wave during Trump’s first midterm in 2018 capturing 40 seats. If voter perceive the economy is in worse shape in 2 years, Democrats would certainly have a chance to retake the seat,” he said.

Republicans have done well in the state by focusing on culture war issues and painting Democrats as out of touch, Alexander said. Democrats will need to “turn that on their head” to improve their standing in the state.

Husted expressed confidence about his chances of victory in a statement to Newsweek.

“I have run statewide four times and have won by double digits in three of the four races. It doesn’t matter if I am ahead or behind in the polls, I will work hard and win,” he said.

Alexander pointed to Trump’s tariff policy as a potential sticking point for voters in Ohio, many of whom believe they will not benefit from the economic policy.

“If I were a Democrat in Ohio, I would beat that drum consistently—that our side is for the middle and working class and their side is for the wealthy and corporate class,” he said.

A February BGSU poll found Husted leading Brown by 6 points and Ryan by 7 points.

Trump won Ohio by about 11 points in 2024, and 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Brown lost last year’s Senate race to Republican Bernie Moreno by about 3.6 percentage points. Vance defeated Ryan by about 6 points in 2022.

What People Are Saying

David Niven, professor at the University of Cincinnati’s School of Public and International Affairs, told Newsweek: “Democrats running statewide in Ohio are 1-27 since 2014. The outlook is never all that rosy for Democrats in Ohio these days.

“That one win was Sherrod Brown (in 2018). Brown lost his seat in 2024, in the most expensive senate race in U.S. history. There is certainly an expectation that if Brown runs again in 2026, he will be a potent candidate. If Brown runs for governor—or doesn’t run at all—Democrats have no candidate of any profile to take on the senate race.

“Appointed senators have a rather shaky record in holding onto the seats they didn’t win in the first place—so Republicans do have to deal with that liability as well as any Trump economic discontent that may take hold.”

Brown told CNN in November: “I’m not dismissing anything at this point.”

What Happens Next

No prominent Democrats have jumped into the Senate race at this point, and Brown and Ryan haven’t said what their plans are for 2026. Ohio voters will head to the polls next November to determine whether or not to reelect Husted.

The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as Likely Republican, meaning it is “not considered competitive at this point” but has “the potential to become engaged.”

Democrats’ top targets are Maine, which former Vice President Kamala Harris won by about 7 points, and North Carolina, which Trump won by about 3 points.